Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.